FN2 Research
Markets, explained.
Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.
Semiconductor Break Tests the Bull Thesis on Fed Day
A semiconductor-led selloff is pressuring the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ahead of the July 29 Fed decision, with AMD down 6.5% and SMH off 4.4%. Energy is the lone green sector as Iran tensions lift oil. META and MSFT report after the close.
SpaceX's $123 Billion Lockup Cliff Meets a Record IPO Pipeline: The Supply Test Arrives Aug. 6
SpaceX's staggered lockup schedule begins releasing roughly 911.5 million shares on August 6 — two business days after its first Q2 earnings report — testing whether the market can absorb $123 billion in newly tradable stock. The event coincides with a record IPO pipeline, Big Tech's pivot from buybacks to equity issuance, and the end of a 23-year tailwind from shrinking share counts.
Iran Escalation Reignites: Oil Whipsaws as Hormuz Diplomacy Collapses
Iran's overnight missile attack on US bases, joint US-Saudi strikes on militias in Iraq, and the collapse of Hormuz diplomacy sent Brent crude whipsawing from a 5% drop to a 4% surge — while Korea's KOSPI triggered back-to-back circuit breakers for the first time in history.
Dow Record, Nasdaq Correction: The Cleanest Rotation Tell in Months
Semiconductor stocks led a global sell-off that pushed the Nasdaq-100 into correction territory, yet the Dow and S&P 500 hit records as healthcare, financials, and industrial earnings beat estimates. The FOMC decision and Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon earnings this week will test whether the rotation holds.
SpaceX's $117 Billion Unlock Meets a Market Under Reconstruction
SpaceX's August 6 lockup expiry releases ~$117B in shares two days after its first public earnings report, testing whether the market's plumbing — reshaped by CME's new 23-hour single-stock futures and the SEC's proposed Rule 611 rescission — can absorb the largest unlock in U.S. IPO history.
Chip Rout Meets Oil Relief: Two Geopolitical Shocks Split Markets in Opposite Directions
On July 28, 2026, two competing geopolitical shocks split markets: a reported Chinese DUV lithography breakthrough triggered a global semiconductor rout that wiped out over $1 trillion in market cap, while a US-Iran strike pause crashed oil prices and lifted non-tech US equities. The question is which force sets the dominant tone.
Chip Rout Meets Earnings Bid: The Market Is Running Two Tapes
The Nasdaq fell 1% while the Dow rose over 1% as a semiconductor rout driven by AI circular-financing fears and Chinese competition collided with strong earnings from Coca-Cola and a rotation into healthcare and financials. The FOMC decision and Magnificent Seven earnings arrive in the next 48 hours.
Global IPO Pipeline Hits Inflection as SEC Moves to Rewrite Equity Trading Rules
CXMT's record $8.6B Shanghai IPO, Innolight's $6.8B Hong Kong listing, Jersey Mike's $1B NYSE IPO, and Ionic Digital's direct listing all land in one week — while the SEC proposes rescinding Reg NMS Rule 611 and NYSE tokenized securities go live. The IPO calendar and market-structure regulation are hitting inflection points simultaneously.
Three Fronts, One Market: Oil Drops 10% on Iran Pause, Chips Lose $1T to China, Senate Targets Russia
Three geopolitical risk fronts converged on July 28: a US-Iran fighting pause cut crude 10% but Hormuz stays shut, China's CXMT IPO and domestic DUV lithography wiped $1T from chip stocks, and the Senate moved on Graham's Russia sanctions as Zelenskyy met Trump at the White House.