FN2 Research
Markets, explained.
Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.
Market Structure Watch: Lockups, Overnight Bands, and the Secondary Wave
SpaceX's $100B lockup expired and the stock rose. The SEC approved overnight price bands. A wave of secondaries hit with concurrent buybacks. Treasury clearing looms for year-end. The plumbing is being rebuilt while the water runs.
Hormuz Blockade Goes Indefinite as Brent Clears $88; Senate Hands Trump a 100% Tariff Hammer
The US vows an indefinite naval blockade of Iran as Brent crude tops $88 and global oil supply shrinks 4%. Meanwhile, the Senate's Russia sanctions bill gives Trump authority to impose 100% tariffs on any country buying Russian energy — a tool that could hit China and India just as Beijing's retaliation shatters the Busan trade truce.
The Semiconductor Split Is the Cleanest Tell in a Churning Tape
The 2026 IPO Boom Is Real. The Aftermarket Is the Test.
Global IPO proceeds tripled to ~$190B in 1H 2026, but the year's largest debuts are underwater. SpaceX's staggered lockup expiries are the real stress test; Anthropic and OpenAI are queued behind.
Hormuz Hardens, China Retaliates: Two Geopolitical Fault Lines Quietly Reshaping the Risk Map
The Semiconductor Split Is the Cleanest Tell on the Tape
The S&P 500's third straight weekly gain masks a sharply bifurcated tape: memory chips surged on SanDisk's investor day while AI infrastructure names cooled. Oil added a Hormuz premium, and July retail sales posted their worst drop in over a year.
The Great Equity Supply Test: Intel's $20 Billion, SpaceX Lockups, and a Reg NMS Rewrite
Intel's upsized $20B stock sale, SpaceX's staggered lockup expiries, and a deep AI-IPO pipeline are flooding the market with new shares just as the SEC proposes the biggest Reg NMS overhaul in two decades.
Oil at $88 as US Blockade Goes 'Indefinite' While US-China Trade Truce Unravels
Split-Level Tape at Record Highs: Memory Chips and Oil Rally While the Consumer Wobbles
The Supply Flood: SpaceX Lockup Unlocks 911 Million Shares as Market Plumbing Quietly Rewires
SpaceX's first lockup expiry frees 911.5 million insider shares — more than 3x the public float — in a week that also saw a $1 billion Birkenstock secondary, Opendoor's first-ever buyback, and SEC approval of overnight price bands ahead of 23-hour trading. The market is absorbing record equity supply on near-record calm.
Two Flashpoints, One Record Close: What the Market Is Pricing and What Could Break
Brent crude holds near $87 with 5.5 million barrels per day of Middle East production shut in by the Hormuz blockade, while Beijing sanctions seven US companies and Washington accuses 40+ countries of tariff evasion. The S&P 500's record close prices de-escalation on both fronts by September. If either flashpoint escalates instead, the record rally faces a sharp repricing.