FN2 Research
Markets, explained.
Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.
The 2026 IPO Machine Is Near Its All-Time Record. Then SpaceX's $123B Lockup Arrives.
Through July 10, operating companies have raised $140 billion in 2026 IPOs, nearly matching 2021's full-year record. Now the largest IPO in history faces its first major lockup expiry, with $123 billion in SpaceX shares set to unlock in early August.
Hormuz Goes Dark: Zero Tankers, $85 Oil, and Two Trade Shocks Colliding on July 24
With zero tankers transiting Hormuz for a third day, Brent above $85, and the 10% universal tariff expiring July 24, markets face a simultaneous energy-supply and trade-policy shock. Oil majors and gold rose Friday; airlines and semiconductors led the downside.
Semis Bear, Oil Surge: A Two-Front Week for Markets
The S&P 500 posted its first losing week in three as semiconductors entered a bear market and oil surged on renewed US-Iran conflict. A cooler CPI print and new Fed Chair Warsh's testimony added a third layer.
IPO Window Stays Open, But Investors Get Selective as SEC Rewrites the Plumbing
Two sizable July IPOs priced below their target ranges and fell on debut, even as a $3.6T AI-led listing pipeline — led by Anthropic and OpenAI — queues up for the fall. The SEC is simultaneously proposing to rescind Reg NMS Rule 611 and extend price bands to overnight trading.
Brent Hits $88 as US-Iran Strikes Enter Eighth Night and Hormuz Traffic Stalls
The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed in mid-July. Eight straight nights of strikes, a reimposed naval blockade, and drone attacks on a second oil chokepoint in the Black Sea have Brent at $88 and US diesel above $5 — with hedge funds going long crude at the fastest pace since 2016.
AI Stocks Crack Despite Blowout Earnings — Is the Capex Supercycle Peaking?
TSMC and ASML posted blowout earnings, yet semiconductor stocks fell ~11% on the week. With oil surging on the Iran conflict and consumer sentiment at 44.8, the coming week's earnings will test whether this is a healthy pullback or the start of a deeper rotation.
The Two-Chokepoint Squeeze: Why Hormuz Alone No Longer Tells the Oil Story
Brent crude cleared $88 after Iraq suspended all Basra terminal loadings and Iran's IRGC directed Houthis to prepare Bab el-Mandeb for closure, turning a single-strait dispute into a potential two-chokepoint squeeze on global oil flows. The market tell is the widening, not the level.
Kimi K3 Tests Whether $700B in AI Capex Still Earns Its Keep
Nasdaq led the week lower as China's Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, triggering DeepSeek-flashback fears over $700B in AI capex. Semis and EDA names took the worst of it; energy was the lone green sector on an Iran-driven oil bid.
Ceasefire Collapse: Seven Nights of Strikes Push Hormuz to a Standstill and Brent Past $88
The US-Iran interim ceasefire has collapsed after seven straight nights of strikes, with Iran suspending the Islamabad MOU and hitting bases in four Gulf states. Brent crude surged to $88 as Hormuz traffic fell to a near-standstill. The market tell is oil pricing a sustained chokepoint while equities lag the repricing.
The Great Supply Test: Lockups, Buybacks, and the Biggest Market-Structure Rewrite in 20 Years
Three structural forces — a record IPO lockup flood, a secular shift from buybacks to AI capex, and the SEC's proposal to rescind Reg NMS's trade-through rule — are converging on US equity markets simultaneously. Here is what each signal means and what to watch.
Twin Chokepoints: Why Hormuz's Collapse and a Red Sea Threat Are Repricing Oil Overnight
With the US-Iran interim deal collapsed after seven consecutive nights of strikes, Strait of Hormuz shipping has fallen to near-zero and Brent crude has surged 16% in a week to $88. Iran is now signaling the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a second chokepoint, threatening to cut off Saudi Arabia's alternative export route and tighten the global energy vise.
The Hormuz Shutdown: How a Collapsed Ceasefire Reignited the Oil Shock
The US-Iran ceasefire is dead. Seven straight nights of strikes have shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent to $88, and created the biggest oil supply disruption in history — just as consumer sentiment hits 44.8 and investor leverage sits at record highs.